Abstract

Coupled Sun-to-Earth models represent a key part of the future development of space weather forecasting. With respect to predicting the state of the thermosphere and ionosphere, there has been a recent paradigm shift; it is now clear that any self-respecting model of this region needs to include some representation of forcing from the lower atmosphere, as well as solar and geomagnetic forcing. Here we assess existing modeling capability and set out a road map for the important next steps needed to ensure further advances. These steps include a model verification strategy, analysis of the impact of nonhydrostatic dynamical cores, and a cost-benefit analysis of model chemistry for weather and climate applications.